This is a note from Goodbody stockbrokers who are advising ENOC in their attempted Dragon-napping. This is an old note, but it shows that earlier this year they saw Core NAV rising from 478.6p to 494.1p, while Total NAV increases from 581.6p to 597.0p.. Funny they now seem to think it’d be okay to offer us just 455p. Vote AGAINST!

Goodbody Stockbrokers Morning Wrap 7/12/2009 and 27/10/2009
Dragon Oil: Steady Progress
Recommendation: Buy
Closiing price 407p

“While the investment case surrounding Dragon continues to be overshadowed by the lack of clarity regarding ENOC’s intentions, at an operating level events continue to demonstrate progress.
Of note within the statement is the fact that capex ($56m in Q3)
continues to undershoot, while production (46.1 kbopd v our Q3 estimate of 44.0 kbopd) overshoots. With production trending ahead, and expectations of a four-rig complement early next year, confidence in our FY10 projection of 52.0 kbopd is reinforced.
Post the IMS, adjustments to our 2009 and 2010 earnings projections are at the margin (+2% in both years), with the increase in FY09 gross production (from 44.4 to 45.1 kbopd) and realised price (from $64.4 to $69.0 per barrel counteracted to a large extent by a lower forecast percentage entitlement.
That said, forecast net cash at the end of 2009 and 2010 increases by 12% and 15% respectively as we have shaved $50m in each year from our prior capex estimates due to the slower pace of infrastructure spend. With net cash at the end of September of $962m, we now expect Dragon to exit the year with c.$1bn in net cash (equivalent to 29% of the current market cap.) That has positive implications for our NAV with Core NAV rising from 478.6p to 494.1p, while Total NAV increases from 581.6p to 597.0p. The pending arrival of additional rigs and a rising oil price continue to provide confidence in production growth. Combine that growth potential with the obvious value (EV/BOE of $3.85, compared to typical take-out multiples in th range of $10 – $12 per boe) and we see no reason to alter our positive stance.
Our price target, which remains pegged to Core NAV(i.e. OIL PRODUCTION ONLY), nudges up from 470p to 495p. The signing of a gas sales agreement, which we anticipate at some stage in 2010, however, would highlight the value within its gas resource (3.2 TCF) and suggest a price target more in line with Total NAV. As such, we view our current target as consevative given progress in terms of oil production and the latent value within its gas resource and maintain our BUY recommendation.”